Monday 30 June 2008
The New York Times
Paul Krugman compares policies of Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.
It's feeling a lot like 1992 right now. It's also feeling a lot like 1980. But which parallel is closer? Is Barack Obama going to be a Ronald Reagan of the left, a president who fundamentally changes the country's direction? Or will he be just another Bill Clinton? Current polls - not horse-race polls, which are notoriously uninformative until later in the campaign, but polls gauging the public mood - are strikingly similar to those in both 1980 and 1992, years in which an overwhelming majority of Americans were dissatisfied with the country's direction.
So the odds are that this will be a "change" election - which means that it's very much Mr. Obama's election to lose. But if he wins, how much change will he actually deliver?
Reagan, for better or worse - I'd say for worse, but that's another discussion - brought a lot of change. He ran as an unabashed conservative, with a clear ideological agenda. And he had enormous success in getting that agenda implemented. He had his failures, most notably on Social Security, which he tried to dismantle but ended up strengthening. But America at the end of the Reagan years was not the same country it was when he took office.
Bill Clinton also ran as a candidate of change, but it was much less clear what kind of change he was offering. He portrayed himself as someone who transcended the traditional liberal-conservative divide, proposing "a government that offers more empowerment and less entitlement." The economic plan he announced during the campaign was something of a hodgepodge: higher taxes on the rich, lower taxes for the middle class, public investment in things like high-speed rail, health care reform without specifics.
We all know what happened next. The Clinton administration achieved a number of significant successes, from the revitalization of veterans' health care and federal emergency management to the expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit and health insurance for children. But the big picture is summed up by the title of a new book by the historian Sean Wilentz: "The Age of Reagan: A history, 1974-2008."
So whom does Mr. Obama resemble more? At this point, he's definitely looking Clintonesque.
Like Mr. Clinton, Mr. Obama portrays himself as transcending traditional divides. Near the end of last week's "unity" event with Hillary Clinton, he declared that "the choice in this election is not between left or right, it's not between liberal or conservative, it's between the past and the future." Oh-kay.
Mr. Obama's economic plan also looks remarkably like the Clinton 1992 plan: a mixture of higher taxes on the rich, tax breaks for the middle class and public investment (this time with a focus on alternative energy).
Sometimes the Clinton-Obama echoes are almost scary. During his speech accepting the nomination, Mr. Clinton led the audience in a chant of "We can do it!" Remind you of anything?
Just to be clear, we could - and still might - do a lot worse than a rerun of the Clinton years. But Mr. Obama's most fervent supporters expect much more.
Progressive activists, in particular, overwhelmingly supported Mr. Obama during the Democratic primary even though his policy positions, particularly on health care, were often to the right of his rivals'. In effect, they convinced themselves that he was a transformational figure behind a centrist facade.
They may have had it backward.
Mr. Obama looks even more centrist now than he did before wrapping up the nomination. Most notably, he has outraged many progressives by supporting a wiretapping bill that, among other things, grants immunity to telecom companies for any illegal acts they may have undertaken at the Bush administration's behest.
The candidate's defenders argue that he's just being pragmatic - that he needs to do whatever it takes to win, and win big, so that he has the power to effect major change. But critics argue that by engaging in the same "triangulation and poll-driven politics" he denounced during the primary, Mr. Obama actually hurts his election prospects, because voters prefer candidates who take firm stands.
In any case, what about after the election? The Reagan-Clinton comparison suggests that a candidate who runs on a clear agenda is more likely to achieve fundamental change than a candidate who runs on the promise of change but isn't too clear about what that change would involve.
Of course, there's always the possibility that Mr. Obama really is a centrist, after all.
One thing is clear: for Democrats, winning this election should be the easy part. Everything is going their way: sky-high gas prices, a weak economy and a deeply unpopular president. The real question is whether they will take advantage of this once-in-a-generation chance to change the country's direction. And that's mainly up to Mr. Obama.
- Índice atual:www.indicedeartigosetc.blogspot.com.br/
- INDICE ANTERIOR a Setembro 28, 2008
segunda-feira, junho 30, 2008
Arquivo do blog
- ► 2016 (69)
- ► 2015 (123)
- ► 2014 (668)
- ► 2013 (629)
- ► 2012 (2586)
- ► 2011 (2527)
- ► 2010 (1998)
- ► 2009 (3759)
- The Obama Agenda by: Paul Krugman,
- Clipping do dia 30/06/2008
- Sobre abraços explícitos e alianças clandestinas R...
- Clipping do dia 29/06/2008
- Clipping do dia 28/06/2008
- Como a “mídia golpista” salvou Lula Reinaldo Azev...
- FERREIRA GULLAR Armaram barraco na Providência
- DANUZA LEÃO A simplicidade da vida
- JANIO DE FREITAS Do morro ao quartel
- CLAUDIA ANTUNES De Carter a Obama
- ELIANE CANTANHÊDE Obama, "la ola"
- CLÓVIS ROSSI A perpetuação da lenda
- Miriam Leitão Convém sonhar
- Merval Pereira - Censura é defeito
- Daniel Piza
- Acontecimentos alarmantes na ilha João Ubaldo Rib...
- Mais uma semana para ser esquecida Alberto Tamer
- Mailson da Nóbrega Lula é neoliberal?
- EUA podem liberar mais terras para o milho David ...
- Suely Caldas* Despolitizar as elétricas
- Celso Ming - A nuvem mudo
- Dora Kramer Mais eleitoreiro é quem diz
- O PAC emperrado
- A Varig de faz-de-conta Fábio Ulhoa Coelho
- Obama, McCain e o Brasil Paulo Sotero
- Viaje al interior de los protagonistas Por Mariano...
- Malos presagios Por Joaquín Morales Solá
- Augusto Nunes-SETE DIAS
- VEJA Carta ao leitor
- VEJA Entrevista: Gilberto Carvalho
- A constelação Barack Obama
- A educação vai a bolsa de valores
- Petróleo As cinco principais razões para o...
- Alckmin, finalmente, é o candidato tucano
- Como barrar os políticos com ficha suja?
- Justiça Empresa é suspeita de "comprar" o ...
- Caso Gautama Romero Jucá e a agenda de Zule...
- Caso Varig O advogado Roberto Teixeira se e...
- Claudio de Moura Castro O Senai na mira do governo...
- André Petry
- Diogo Mainardi
- Roberto Pompeu de Toledo
- A revolucionária discreta
- Especial Os limites da cirurgia estética
- Internet Empresas recrutam no Second Life
- Chineses treinam para se comportar bem nos Jogos
- África O Zimbábue resume a ruína do contin...
- Coréia do Norte Um passo atrás no programa...
- CLÓVIS ROSSI A Amazônia é nossa. Nós quem?
- Miriam Leitão Poço de confusões
- Merval Pereira -Inflação e popularidade
- De estrela brasileira a buraco negro Josef Barat*...
- Celso Ming - Como fica a Bolsa
- Dora Kramer A mania do maniqueísmo
- No rumo da internacionalização do real
- O Ipea às ordens do governo
- A Companheira-Maria Helea Rubinato-
- Sai do armário, bispo! JOÃO XIMENES BRAGA
- País ignora o que ocorre em 14% da Amazônia, diz I...
- Lucia Hippolito - A personagem do semestre
- NELSON MOTTA Todos contra todos
- O adeus a Ruth Cardoso
- Merval Pereira - O real e o simbólico
- Míriam Leitão - Dupla face
- Luiz Garcia - A bancada da ficha suja
- Clóvis Rossi - "Desaceleraflação"
- Dora Kramer - Rodízio de nulidades
- Eliane Cantanhede - O abraço
- Clóvis Rossi - Ruth e a "soberania"
- Celso Ming - Fio desencapado
- Clipping do dia 27/06/2008
- Dora Kramer - Uma mulher incomum
- É pedir muito que Lula seja coerente no curtíssimo...
- Clipping do dia 26/06/2008
- Merval Pereira - O papel de polícia
- RUTH CARDOSO 1 - Como não sou político, jamais dei...
- Míriam Leitão - Mulher moderna
- Celso Ming - É da braba
- Chega de lendas! - Demétrio Magnoli
- Ruth AUGUSTO DE FRANCO
- ELIANE CANTANHÊDE Ruth Cardoso
- CLÓVIS ROSSI Ruth e a "soberania"
- Ruth Cardoso
- A gigante Ruth tombou
- do Blog Reinaldo Azevedo
- A insensatez marcha no Morro da Providência José ...
- Clipping do dia 25/06/2008
- Celso Ming - O Fed decide
- Dora Kramer - Da missa, a metade
- Merval Pereira - O Exército e a segurança
- Míriam Leitão - Roendo a renda
- Dilma recebeu Roberto Teixeira
- Ruth Cardoso é personagem por trás do Bolsa-Famíli...
- Adeus a Ruth Cardoso
- A mulher que modernizou a política social brasilei...
- Ruth: altivez decorosa
- Celso Ming - Avançou pouco
- Clóvis Rossi - O arroz e o morango
- ▼ Junho (460)
- ► 2007 (5161)
- ► 2006 (6086)
- ► 2005 (4606)
- ► 2004 (74)
- ► 2003 (22)
- Blog do Lampreia
- Caio Blinder
- Adriano Pires
- Democracia Politica e novo reformismo
- Blog do VILLA
- Augusto Nunes
- Reinaldo Azevedo
- Conteudo Livre
- Indice anterior a 4 dezembro de 2005
- Google News
- INDICE ATUALIZADO
- INDICE ATE4 DEZEMBRO 2005
- Blog Noblat
- CLIPPING DE NOTICIAS
- BLOG JOSIAS DE SOUZA